Prediction Audit: Santa Cruz vs Maranhão Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Santa Cruz

Aug 15, 2026 - 22:30

0 1.32

1 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

Maranhão

The model missed the final outcome (Maranhão win 0–1).

The model had projected Santa Cruz at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Santa Cruz Maranhão ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Santa Cruz	36.1%	46.0%	-9.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	32.6%	-2.9 pp	Aligned
Maranhão	34.2%	21.5%	+12.8 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Maranhão's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.5%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maranhão win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Maranhão.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Santa Cruz; match finished Maranhão

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Santa Cruz by 12.8 percentage points (23.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Santa Cruz 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Maranhão 34.2%
- xG · Santa Cruz 1.32 — Maranhão 1.28
Aug 15, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Santa Cruz 1.90 · Draw 2.68 · Maranhão 4.07
- Implied 1X2 · Santa Cruz 46.0% · Draw 32.6% · Maranhão 21.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Santa Cruz 1.90 · Draw 2.68 · Maranhão 4.07
- Implied 1X2 · Santa Cruz 46.0% · Draw 32.6% · Maranhão 21.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Maranhão win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3369494

Closing Odds 4.07

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Maranhão win · Santa Cruz 0–1 Maranhão

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie C
Fixture: Santa Cruz vs Maranhão
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 22:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Santa Cruz 1.32 — Maranhão 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Serie C Matches Track Santa Cruz Next Match Prediction Track Maranhão Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Santa Cruz & Maranhão!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Serie C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Botafogo PB	19	10	3	6	33
2	Brusque	19	9	5	5	32
3	Ferroviária	19	8	6	5	30
4	Maringá	19	8	6	5	30
5	Floresta	19	8	6	5	30
6	Inter De Limeira	19	8	6	5	30
7	Paysandu	19	9	2	8	29
8	Santa Cruz	19	8	5	6	29
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	8	5	6	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	7	7	5	28
11	Figueirense	19	7	7	5	28
12	Maranhão	19	7	6	6	27
13	Amazonas	19	7	5	7	26
14	Caxias	19	6	7	6	25
15	Ituano	19	6	4	9	22
16	Volta Redonda	19	6	3	10	21
17	Barra	19	5	6	8	21
18	Anápolis	19	5	4	10	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	4	5	10	17
20	Confiança	19	3	4	12	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Guarani Campinas	19	34	24	+10	28
2	Maringá	19	32	30	+2	30
3	Botafogo PB	19	28	19	+9	33
4	Brusque	19	28	22	+6	32
5	Ypiranga-RS	19	27	24	+3	29
6	Paysandu	19	26	27	-1	29
7	Ferroviária	19	22	15	+7	30
8	Floresta	19	22	20	+2	30
9	Inter De Limeira	19	22	20	+2	30
10	Barra	19	21	21	0	21
11	Amazonas	19	21	23	-2	26
12	Santa Cruz	19	20	15	+5	29
13	Maranhão	19	19	18	+1	27
14	Figueirense	19	19	22	-3	28
15	Ituano	19	18	21	-3	22
16	Caxias	19	17	16	+1	25
17	Anápolis	19	17	22	-5	19
18	AO Itabaiana	19	14	27	-13	17
19	Volta Redonda	19	13	25	-12	21
20	Confiança	19	11	20	-9	13