Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie C / Guarani Campinas vs Inter De Limeira

Prediction Audit: Guarani Campinas vs Inter De Limeira Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guarani Campinas Guarani Campinas
Jul 27, 2026 - 23:00
3 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 59%
Inter De Limeira Inter De Limeira

AI correctly predicted the Guarani Campinas win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guarani Campinas Guarani Campinas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Guarani Campinas higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guarani Campinas -17.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Guarani Campinas 37.5% 55.2% -17.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.3% +3.3 pp Aligned
Inter De Limeira 32.9% 18.4% +14.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Guarani Campinas's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 17.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Guarani Campinas win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Guarani Campinas than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Guarani Campinas higher (55.2% vs model 37.5%, 17.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Guarani Campinas win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 27, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Guarani Campinas 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Inter De Limeira 32.9%
    • xG · Guarani Campinas 1.35 — Inter De Limeira 1.25
  2. Jul 27, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Guarani Campinas 1.56 · Draw 3.27 · Inter De Limeira 4.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Guarani Campinas 55.2% · Draw 26.3% · Inter De Limeira 18.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 27, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Guarani Campinas 1.56 · Draw 3.27 · Inter De Limeira 4.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Guarani Campinas 55.2% · Draw 26.3% · Inter De Limeira 18.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 27, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Guarani Campinas win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455028

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guarani Campinas win · Guarani Campinas 3–1 Inter De Limeira
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie C
  • Fixture: Guarani Campinas vs Inter De Limeira
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-27 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Guarani Campinas 1.35 — Inter De Limeira 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C Serie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 32
3 Ferroviária 19 8 6 5 30
4 Maringá 19 8 6 5 30
5 Floresta 19 8 6 5 30
6 Inter De Limeira 19 8 6 5 30
7 Paysandu 19 9 2 8 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 29
9 Ypiranga-RS 19 8 5 6 29
10 Guarani Campinas 19 7 7 5 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 28
12 Maranhão 19 7 6 6 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 26
14 Caxias 19 6 7 6 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 21
17 Barra 19 5 6 8 21
18 Anápolis 19 5 4 10 19
19 AO Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 17
20 Confiança 19 3 4 12 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guarani Campinas 19 34 24 +10 28
2 Maringá 19 32 30 +2 30
3 Botafogo PB 19 28 19 +9 33
4 Brusque 19 28 22 +6 32
5 Ypiranga-RS 19 27 24 +3 29
6 Paysandu 19 26 27 -1 29
7 Ferroviária 19 22 15 +7 30
8 Floresta 19 22 20 +2 30
9 Inter De Limeira 19 22 20 +2 30
10 Barra 19 21 21 0 21
11 Amazonas 19 21 23 -2 26
12 Santa Cruz 19 20 15 +5 29
13 Maranhão 19 19 18 +1 27
14 Figueirense 19 19 22 -3 28
15 Ituano 19 18 21 -3 22
16 Caxias 19 17 16 +1 25
17 Anápolis 19 17 22 -5 19
18 AO Itabaiana 19 14 27 -13 17
19 Volta Redonda 19 13 25 -12 21
20 Confiança 19 11 20 -9 13
Serie C Brazil. Serie C Predictions