The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Amkar at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Amkar Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amkar | 41.8% | 59.5% | -17.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 24.8% | +0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Urozhay | 32.6% | 15.6% | +16.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Amkar's win probability at 59.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Amkar than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Amkar; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Amkar by 17.8 percentage points (59.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 30, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Amkar 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Urozhay 32.6%
- xG · Amkar 1.45 — Urozhay 1.25
-
May 30, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Amkar 1.51 · Draw 3.62 · Urozhay 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · Amkar 59.5% · Draw 24.8% · Urozhay 15.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 30, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Amkar 1.51 · Draw 3.62 · Urozhay 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · Amkar 59.5% · Draw 24.8% · Urozhay 15.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 | Kaluga | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Torpedo Miass | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Irtysh Omsk | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Urozhay | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Avangard Kursk | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 8 | Murom | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaluga | 14 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 25 |
| 3 | Irtysh Omsk | 14 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 14 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Urozhay | 14 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Avangard Kursk | 14 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
| 8 | Murom | 14 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
