The model missed the final outcome (Dinamo Bryansk win 1–2).
The model had projected Tyumen at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tyumen Dinamo Bryansk ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyumen | 41.8% | 55.1% | -13.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.0% | -0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Dinamo Bryansk | 32.6% | 18.9% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Dinamo Bryansk's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.9%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Dinamo Bryansk win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dinamo Bryansk.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tyumen by 13.7 percentage points (28.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tyumen 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Dinamo Bryansk 32.6%
- xG · Tyumen 1.45 — Dinamo Bryansk 1.25
-
May 16, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tyumen 1.63 · Draw 3.46 · Dinamo Bryansk 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Tyumen 55.1% · Draw 26.0% · Dinamo Bryansk 18.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tyumen 1.63 · Draw 3.46 · Dinamo Bryansk 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Tyumen 55.1% · Draw 26.0% · Dinamo Bryansk 18.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 16, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Dinamo Bryansk win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 | Kaluga | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Torpedo Miass | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Irtysh Omsk | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Urozhay | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Avangard Kursk | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 8 | Murom | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaluga | 14 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 25 |
| 3 | Irtysh Omsk | 14 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 14 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Urozhay | 14 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Avangard Kursk | 14 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
| 8 | Murom | 14 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
