Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver / Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Dinamo Moskva II

Prediction Audit: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Dinamo Moskva II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alaniya Vladikavkaz Alaniya Vladikavkaz
May 16, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Dinamo Moskva II Dinamo Moskva II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Alaniya Vladikavkaz at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Alaniya Vladikavkaz higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Alaniya Vladikavkaz -24.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 41.8% 66.1% -24.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 20.9% +4.8 pp Aligned
Dinamo Moskva II 32.6% 13.0% +19.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Alaniya Vladikavkaz's win probability at 66.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 24.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Alaniya Vladikavkaz by 24.3 percentage points (66.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Dinamo Moskva II 32.6%
    • xG · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1.45 — Dinamo Moskva II 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1.36 · Draw 4.30 · Dinamo Moskva II 6.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 66.1% · Draw 20.9% · Dinamo Moskva II 13.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1.36 · Draw 4.30 · Dinamo Moskva II 6.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 66.1% · Draw 20.9% · Dinamo Moskva II 13.0%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 16, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1661089

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1–1 Dinamo Moskva II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Silver
  • Fixture: Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Dinamo Moskva II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1.45 — Dinamo Moskva II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS No (Yes 44.4% · No 55.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.4% · No 55.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Silver Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rodina Moskva II 14 7 4 3 25
2 Kaluga 14 7 3 4 24
3 Torpedo Miass 14 4 8 2 20
4 Irtysh Omsk 14 4 7 3 19
5 Urozhay 14 4 6 4 18
6 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 5 2 7 17
7 Avangard Kursk 14 3 4 7 13
8 Murom 14 2 6 6 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kaluga 14 20 14 +6 24
2 Rodina Moskva II 14 18 12 +6 25
3 Irtysh Omsk 14 15 13 +2 19
4 Torpedo Miass 14 14 12 +2 20
5 Urozhay 14 14 14 0 18
6 Avangard Kursk 14 14 23 -9 13
7 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 13 16 -3 17
8 Murom 14 13 17 -4 12
Second League A - Division A Silver Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver Predictions