Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver / Dinamo Bryansk vs Amkar

Prediction Audit: Dinamo Bryansk vs Amkar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dinamo Bryansk Dinamo Bryansk
May 10, 2026 - 14:30
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Amkar Amkar

AI correctly predicted the Dinamo Bryansk win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dinamo Bryansk Dinamo Bryansk ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Dinamo Bryansk +3.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dinamo Bryansk 41.8% 38.2% +3.5 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 27.6% -2.0 pp Aligned
Amkar 32.6% 34.1% -1.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dinamo Bryansk win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Dinamo Bryansk win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dinamo Bryansk 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Amkar 32.6%
    • xG · Dinamo Bryansk 1.45 — Amkar 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dinamo Bryansk 2.35 · Draw 3.25 · Amkar 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Dinamo Bryansk 38.2% · Draw 27.6% · Amkar 34.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 10, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dinamo Bryansk 2.35 · Draw 3.25 · Amkar 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Dinamo Bryansk 38.2% · Draw 27.6% · Amkar 34.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 10, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dinamo Bryansk win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2073544

Closing Odds 2.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dinamo Bryansk win · Dinamo Bryansk 2–0 Amkar
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Silver
  • Fixture: Dinamo Bryansk vs Amkar
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Dinamo Bryansk 1.45 — Amkar 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.9% · Over 2.5 53.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.9% · No 42.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.9% · No 42.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Silver Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rodina Moskva II 14 7 4 3 25
2 Kaluga 14 7 3 4 24
3 Torpedo Miass 14 4 8 2 20
4 Irtysh Omsk 14 4 7 3 19
5 Urozhay 14 4 6 4 18
6 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 5 2 7 17
7 Avangard Kursk 14 3 4 7 13
8 Murom 14 2 6 6 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kaluga 14 20 14 +6 24
2 Rodina Moskva II 14 18 12 +6 25
3 Irtysh Omsk 14 15 13 +2 19
4 Torpedo Miass 14 14 12 +2 20
5 Urozhay 14 14 14 0 18
6 Avangard Kursk 14 14 23 -9 13
7 Dinamo Vladivostok 14 13 16 -3 17
8 Murom 14 13 17 -4 12
Second League A - Division A Silver Russia. Second League A - Division A Silver Predictions