Predictions / Football / Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B / El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC

Prediction Audit: El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

El Nacional El Nacional
Jul 24, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.42
0 1.18
xG Accuracy: 49%
Gualaceo SC Gualaceo SC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected El Nacional at 38.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 El Nacional Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gualaceo SC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gualaceo SC -14.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
El Nacional 38.1% 24.1% +14.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.4% 28.6% +0.8 pp Aligned
Gualaceo SC 32.5% 47.3% -14.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Gualaceo SC's win probability at 47.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.5%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Gualaceo SC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned El Nacional; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on El Nacional by 14.8 percentage points (52.9% vs model 38.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 24, 2026 · 20:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · El Nacional 38.1% · Draw 29.4% · Gualaceo SC 32.5%
    • xG · El Nacional 1.42 — Gualaceo SC 1.18
  2. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · El Nacional 3.79 · Draw 3.20 · Gualaceo SC 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · El Nacional 24.1% · Draw 28.6% · Gualaceo SC 47.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 24, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · El Nacional 3.79 · Draw 3.20 · Gualaceo SC 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · El Nacional 24.1% · Draw 28.6% · Gualaceo SC 47.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453193

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · El Nacional 0–0 Gualaceo SC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ecuador Liga Pro Serie B
  • Fixture: El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-24 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 32.5%
  • xG (showing): El Nacional 1.42 — Gualaceo SC 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Pro Serie B Liga Pro Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 10 9 3 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 38
3 9 de Octubre 22 9 10 3 37
4 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 34
5 Cuniburo 22 8 7 7 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 31
7 Gualaceo SC 22 7 8 7 29
8 Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 28
9 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 27
10 Cumbayá 22 5 11 6 26
11 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 15
12 El Nacional 22 2 6 14 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ind. Juniors 22 28 16 +12 39
2 Atletico FC 22 25 14 +11 38
3 Cuniburo 22 25 17 +8 31
4 San Antonio 22 24 21 +3 31
5 9 de Octubre 22 22 14 +8 37
6 Cumbayá 22 22 22 0 26
7 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 22 20 23 -3 34
8 Gualaceo SC 22 19 16 +3 29
9 Santo Domingo 22 17 16 +1 28
10 LDU Portoviejo 22 17 22 -5 27
11 El Nacional 22 15 32 -17 12
12 22 de Julio 22 10 31 -21 15
Liga Pro Serie B Ecuador. Liga Pro Serie B Predictions