Predictions / Football / Kuwait. Division 1 / Sporty vs Yarmouk

Prediction Audit: Sporty vs Yarmouk Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sporty Sporty
Jul 29, 2026 - 17:45
1 1.17
2 1.78
xG Accuracy: 90%
Yarmouk Yarmouk

AI correctly predicted the Yarmouk win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yarmouk Yarmouk ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Yarmouk higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Yarmouk -13.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sporty 19.4% 11.8% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 24.2% 18.1% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Yarmouk 56.3% 70.1% -13.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Yarmouk's win probability at 70.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 56.3%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yarmouk win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Yarmouk than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.95) — 3 goals materialised
  • Yarmouk attacking xG significantly stronger (1.78 vs 1.17)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yarmouk higher (70.1% vs model 56.3%, 13.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yarmouk win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 29, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sporty 19.5% · Draw 24.3% · Yarmouk 56.2%
    • xG · Sporty 1.17 — Yarmouk 1.78
  2. Jul 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sporty 7.57 · Draw 4.92 · Yarmouk 1.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Sporty 11.8% · Draw 18.1% · Yarmouk 70.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 29, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sporty 7.57 · Draw 4.92 · Yarmouk 1.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Sporty 11.8% · Draw 18.1% · Yarmouk 70.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 29, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yarmouk win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455324

Closing Odds 1.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yarmouk win · Sporty 1–2 Yarmouk
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Sporty vs Yarmouk
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-29 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 19.5% · Draw 24.3% · Away 56.2%
  • xG (showing): Sporty 1.17 — Yarmouk 1.78 (total xG ≈ 2.95)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.5% · Over 2.5 56.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.8% · No 41.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.8% · No 41.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Sulaibikhat 21 13 5 3 44
2 Al Sahel 21 13 5 3 44
3 Yarmouk 21 13 4 4 43
4 Al Jazira 21 11 5 5 38
5 Khaitan 21 7 6 8 27
6 Burgan 21 5 8 8 23
7 Shamiya 21 3 1 17 10
8 Sporty 21 2 0 19 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yarmouk 21 42 20 +22 43
2 Al Jazira 21 41 24 +17 38
3 Al Sulaibikhat 21 38 16 +22 44
4 Al Sahel 21 35 16 +19 44
5 Burgan 21 26 30 -4 23
6 Khaitan 21 23 20 +3 27
7 Shamiya 21 19 63 -44 10
8 Sporty 21 14 49 -35 6