Predictions / Football / Kuwait. Division 1 / Burgan vs Sporty

Prediction Audit: Burgan vs Sporty Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Burgan Burgan
Jul 25, 2026 - 17:45
0 1.51
1 1.53
xG Accuracy: 57%
Sporty Sporty

The model missed the final outcome (Sporty win 0–1).

The model had projected Burgan at 42.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Burgan Sporty ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Burgan higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Burgan -14.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Burgan 42.8% 57.0% -14.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.1% 25.0% +2.2 pp Aligned
Sporty 30.0% 18.1% +12.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Burgan's win probability at 57.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.8%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sporty win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Burgan than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Burgan by 14.2 percentage points (56.9% vs model 42.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Burgan 42.8% · Draw 27.2% · Sporty 30.1%
    • xG · Burgan 1.51 — Sporty 1.53
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Burgan 1.56 · Draw 3.56 · Sporty 4.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Burgan 57.0% · Draw 25.0% · Sporty 18.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Burgan 1.56 · Draw 3.56 · Sporty 4.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Burgan 57.0% · Draw 25.0% · Sporty 18.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 17:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sporty win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456703

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sporty win · Burgan 0–1 Sporty
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Burgan vs Sporty
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Burgan 1.51 — Sporty 1.53 (total xG ≈ 3.04)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Sulaibikhat 21 13 5 3 44
2 Al Sahel 21 13 5 3 44
3 Yarmouk 21 13 4 4 43
4 Al Jazira 21 11 5 5 38
5 Khaitan 21 7 6 8 27
6 Burgan 21 5 8 8 23
7 Shamiya 21 3 1 17 10
8 Sporty 21 2 0 19 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yarmouk 21 42 20 +22 43
2 Al Jazira 21 41 24 +17 38
3 Al Sulaibikhat 21 38 16 +22 44
4 Al Sahel 21 35 16 +19 44
5 Burgan 21 26 30 -4 23
6 Khaitan 21 23 20 +3 27
7 Shamiya 21 19 63 -44 10
8 Sporty 21 14 49 -35 6