Predictions / Football / Colombia. Liga Femenina / Deportivo Pasto W vs Once Caldas W

Prediction Audit: Deportivo Pasto W vs Once Caldas W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Deportivo Pasto W Deportivo Pasto W
Jul 26, 2026 - 20:00
4 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 47%
Once Caldas W Once Caldas W

AI correctly predicted the Deportivo Pasto W win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Deportivo Pasto W Deportivo Pasto W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -1.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Deportivo Pasto W 40.4% 39.9% +0.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 31.3% -1.9 pp Aligned
Once Caldas W 30.1% 28.8% +1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Deportivo Pasto W win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Deportivo Pasto W win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto W 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Once Caldas W 30.1%
    • xG · Deportivo Pasto W 1.41 — Once Caldas W 1.19
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto W 2.27 · Draw 2.89 · Once Caldas W 3.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto W 39.9% · Draw 31.3% · Once Caldas W 28.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Deportivo Pasto W 2.27 · Draw 2.89 · Once Caldas W 3.15
    • Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Pasto W 39.9% · Draw 31.3% · Once Caldas W 28.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Deportivo Pasto W win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 90/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454674

Closing Odds 2.89
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Deportivo Pasto W win · Deportivo Pasto W 4–1 Once Caldas W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga Femenina Dimayor
  • Fixture: Deportivo Pasto W vs Once Caldas W
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Pasto W 1.41 — Once Caldas W 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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