AI correctly predicted the Flint City Bucks win.
The match finished 2–6, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Flint City Bucks Flint City Bucks ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-6 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lansing City | 23.7% | 6.4% | +17.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.5% | 7.6% | +20.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Flint City Bucks | 47.8% | 86.0% | -38.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Flint City Bucks's win probability at 86.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.8%, a difference of 38.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Flint City Bucks win 2–6).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
- Flint City Bucks attacking xG significantly stronger (1.56 vs 1.04)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Flint City Bucks higher (85.9% vs model 47.8%, 38.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Flint City Bucks win 2–6).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 06, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lansing City 23.7% · Draw 28.5% · Flint City Bucks 47.8%
- xG · Lansing City 1.04 — Flint City Bucks 1.56
-
Jul 06, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lansing City 14.03 · Draw 11.86 · Flint City Bucks 1.05
- Implied 1X2 · Lansing City 6.4% · Draw 7.6% · Flint City Bucks 86.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 06, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lansing City 14.03 · Draw 11.86 · Flint City Bucks 1.05
- Implied 1X2 · Lansing City 6.4% · Draw 7.6% · Flint City Bucks 86.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 06, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Flint City Bucks win · 2–6
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (38 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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