The model missed the final outcome (SC Wanderers win 1–6).
The model had projected St George Willawong at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 St George Willawong SC Wanderers ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-6 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St George Willawong | 39.5% | 22.2% | +17.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 19.2% | +10.3 pp | Model Edge |
| SC Wanderers | 31.0% | 58.5% | -27.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates SC Wanderers's win probability at 58.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 27.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was SC Wanderers win 1–6.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned St George Willawong; match finished SC Wanderers
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on St George Willawong by 27.5 percentage points (67.0% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 06:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · St George Willawong 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · SC Wanderers 31.0%
- xG · St George Willawong 1.39 — SC Wanderers 1.21
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 05:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · St George Willawong 4.11 · Draw 4.75 · SC Wanderers 1.56
- Implied 1X2 · St George Willawong 22.2% · Draw 19.2% · SC Wanderers 58.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 06:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · St George Willawong 4.11 · Draw 4.75 · SC Wanderers 1.56
- Implied 1X2 · St George Willawong 22.2% · Draw 19.2% · SC Wanderers 58.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 06:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result SC Wanderers win · 1–6
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (28 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Queensland Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 52 | 18 | +34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 51 | 20 | +31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 37 |
| 4 | Caboolture | 22 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Redlands United | 22 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 30 |
| 6 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 30 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 27 |
| 8 | Robina City | 22 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 32 |
| 9 | Ipswich | 22 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 35 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | Capalaba | 22 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 11 |
| 12 | St George Willawong | 22 | 13 | 52 | -39 | 13 |
