The model missed the final outcome (Caboolture win 7–2).
The model had projected Holland Park Hawks at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Holland Park Hawks Caboolture ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 7-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caboolture | 34.2% | 52.6% | -18.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.1% | +8.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Holland Park Hawks | 36.1% | 26.3% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Caboolture's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Caboolture win 7–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Caboolture than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Holland Park Hawks; match finished Caboolture
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Holland Park Hawks by 18.3 percentage points (54.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 05:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Caboolture 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Holland Park Hawks 36.1%
- xG · Caboolture 1.28 — Holland Park Hawks 1.32
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 05:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Caboolture 1.74 · Draw 4.33 · Holland Park Hawks 3.48
- Implied 1X2 · Caboolture 52.6% · Draw 21.1% · Holland Park Hawks 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 05:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Caboolture 1.74 · Draw 4.33 · Holland Park Hawks 3.48
- Implied 1X2 · Caboolture 52.6% · Draw 21.1% · Holland Park Hawks 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 06:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Caboolture win · 7–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Queensland Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 37 |
| 4 | Ipswich | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 5 | Robina City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 6 | Caboolture | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | St George Willawong | 22 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 13 |
| 12 | Capalaba | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 22 | 52 | 18 | +34 | 54 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 22 | 51 | 20 | +31 | 52 |
| 3 | SC Wanderers | 22 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 37 |
| 4 | Caboolture | 22 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 31 |
| 5 | Redlands United | 22 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 30 |
| 6 | Holland Park Hawks | 22 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 30 |
| 7 | Logan Lightning | 22 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 27 |
| 8 | Robina City | 22 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 32 |
| 9 | Ipswich | 22 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 35 |
| 10 | North Star | 22 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 21 |
| 11 | Capalaba | 22 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 11 |
| 12 | St George Willawong | 22 | 13 | 52 | -39 | 13 |
