Predictions / Football / Australia. Queensland Premier League / St George Willawong vs Caboolture

Prediction Audit: St George Willawong vs Caboolture Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

St George Willawong St George Willawong
Jul 18, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 64%
Caboolture Caboolture

AI correctly predicted the St George Willawong win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 St George Willawong St George Willawong ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Caboolture higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Caboolture -23.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
St George Willawong 41.4% 26.5% +14.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.4% 20.7% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Caboolture 29.2% 52.8% -23.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Caboolture's win probability at 52.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.2%, a difference of 23.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (St George Willawong win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced St George Willawong higher (65.0% vs model 41.4%, 23.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (St George Willawong win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 19:33 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · St George Willawong 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Caboolture 29.3%
    • xG · St George Willawong 1.43 — Caboolture 1.17
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · St George Willawong 3.29 · Draw 4.22 · Caboolture 1.62
    • Implied 1X2 · St George Willawong 26.2% · Draw 20.5% · Caboolture 53.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · St George Willawong 3.25 · Draw 4.17 · Caboolture 1.63
    • Implied 1X2 · St George Willawong 26.5% · Draw 20.7% · Caboolture 52.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result St George Willawong win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 19:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1490459

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result St George Willawong win · St George Willawong 1–0 Caboolture
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Queensland Premier League
  • Fixture: St George Willawong vs Caboolture
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): St George Willawong 1.43 — Caboolture 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Queensland Premier League Queensland Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 17 3 2 54
2 Broadbeach United 22 16 4 2 52
3 SC Wanderers 22 10 7 5 37
4 Ipswich 22 10 5 7 35
5 Robina City 22 9 5 8 32
6 Caboolture 22 9 4 9 31
7 Redlands United 22 8 6 8 30
8 Holland Park Hawks 22 9 3 10 30
9 Logan Lightning 22 8 3 11 27
10 North Star 22 6 3 13 21
11 St George Willawong 22 4 1 17 13
12 Capalaba 22 3 2 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 52 18 +34 54
2 Broadbeach United 22 51 20 +31 52
3 SC Wanderers 22 46 28 +18 37
4 Caboolture 22 45 38 +7 31
5 Redlands United 22 40 38 +2 30
6 Holland Park Hawks 22 40 48 -8 30
7 Logan Lightning 22 39 41 -2 27
8 Robina City 22 36 29 +7 32
9 Ipswich 22 35 30 +5 35
10 North Star 22 22 41 -19 21
11 Capalaba 22 21 57 -36 11
12 St George Willawong 22 13 52 -39 13