The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Peninsula Power at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Peninsula Power Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peninsula Power | 39.5% | 56.1% | -16.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 19.9% | +9.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Brisbane City | 31.0% | 24.0% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Peninsula Power's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 16.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Peninsula Power than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Peninsula Power; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Peninsula Power by 16.6 percentage points (56.1% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Peninsula Power 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Brisbane City 31.0%
- xG · Peninsula Power 1.39 — Brisbane City 1.21
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Peninsula Power 1.66 · Draw 4.45 · Brisbane City 3.77
- Implied 1X2 · Peninsula Power 55.1% · Draw 20.6% · Brisbane City 24.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Peninsula Power 1.65 · Draw 4.65 · Brisbane City 3.86
- Implied 1X2 · Peninsula Power 56.1% · Draw 19.9% · Brisbane City 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Queensland NPL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 16 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 57 | 22 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 39 |
| 3 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 45 |
| 4 | Brisbane City | 22 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 34 |
| 5 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 38 |
| 6 | Olympic | 22 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 26 |
| 7 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 8 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 21 |
| 10 | Magic United | 22 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 22 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 16 |
| 12 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 20 |
