The model missed the final outcome (Magic United win 1–4).
The model had projected Eastern Suburbs at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Eastern Suburbs Magic United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Suburbs | 38.0% | 69.3% | -31.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 15.2% | +14.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Magic United | 32.4% | 15.5% | +16.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Eastern Suburbs's win probability at 69.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 31.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Magic United win 1–4.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Eastern Suburbs; match finished Magic United
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Eastern Suburbs by 31.3 percentage points (69.3% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 19:33 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Eastern Suburbs 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Magic United 32.4%
- xG · Eastern Suburbs 1.36 — Magic United 1.24
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Eastern Suburbs 1.33 · Draw 5.95 · Magic United 5.85
- Implied 1X2 · Eastern Suburbs 68.9% · Draw 15.4% · Magic United 15.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Eastern Suburbs 1.32 · Draw 6.02 · Magic United 5.91
- Implied 1X2 · Eastern Suburbs 69.3% · Draw 15.2% · Magic United 15.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 18, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Magic United win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Queensland NPL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 39 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 8 | Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 26 |
| 9 | Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 10 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 12 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 16 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | 22 | 57 | 22 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 39 |
| 3 | Peninsula Power | 22 | 49 | 27 | +22 | 45 |
| 4 | Brisbane City | 22 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 34 |
| 5 | Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 38 |
| 6 | Olympic | 22 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 26 |
| 7 | WDSC Wolves | 22 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 8 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 21 |
| 10 | Magic United | 22 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 22 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar II | 22 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 16 |
| 12 | Gold Coast United | 22 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 20 |
