Predictions / Football / Australia. Northern NSW NPL / Kahibah vs Cooks Hill United

Prediction Audit: Kahibah vs Cooks Hill United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kahibah Kahibah
Aug 16, 2026 - 04:00
2 1.34
4 1.26
xG Accuracy: 39%
Cooks Hill United Cooks Hill United

The model missed the final outcome (Cooks Hill United win 2–4).

The model had projected Kahibah at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kahibah Cooks Hill United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kahibah higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kahibah -17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kahibah 37.1% 54.8% -17.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 18.2% +11.5 pp Model Edge
Cooks Hill United 33.3% 27.0% +6.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Kahibah's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cooks Hill United win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kahibah than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Kahibah; match finished Cooks Hill United

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kahibah by 17.8 percentage points (54.9% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kahibah 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Cooks Hill United 33.4%
    • xG · Kahibah 1.34 — Cooks Hill United 1.26
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kahibah 1.64 · Draw 4.95 · Cooks Hill United 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Kahibah 54.8% · Draw 18.2% · Cooks Hill United 27.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kahibah 1.64 · Draw 4.95 · Cooks Hill United 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Kahibah 54.8% · Draw 18.2% · Cooks Hill United 27.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cooks Hill United win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3598655

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cooks Hill United win · Kahibah 2–4 Cooks Hill United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Northern NSW NPL
  • Fixture: Kahibah vs Cooks Hill United
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 04:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Kahibah 1.34 — Cooks Hill United 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Northern NSW NPL Northern NSW NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 15 4 3 49
2 Maitland 22 13 3 6 42
3 Weston Bears 22 12 5 5 41
4 Edgeworth Eagles 22 11 6 5 39
5 Belmont Swansea 22 10 5 7 35
6 Cooks Hill United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Valentine 22 7 5 10 26
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 7 4 11 25
9 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 6 6 10 24
10 Hamilton Olympic 22 5 6 11 21
11 Kahibah 22 6 2 14 20
12 Charlestown City Blues 22 4 2 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 59 23 +36 49
2 Weston Bears 22 48 33 +15 41
3 Belmont Swansea 22 47 44 +3 35
4 Cooks Hill United 22 43 36 +7 33
5 Edgeworth Eagles 22 41 31 +10 39
6 Maitland 22 40 32 +8 42
7 Hamilton Olympic 22 39 40 -1 21
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 38 33 +5 25
9 Kahibah 22 35 53 -18 20
10 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 34 45 -11 24
11 Charlestown City Blues 22 25 62 -37 14
12 Valentine 22 22 39 -17 26