Predictions / Football / Australia. Northern NSW NPL / Cooks Hill United vs Lambton Jaffas

Prediction Audit: Cooks Hill United vs Lambton Jaffas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cooks Hill United Cooks Hill United
Jul 25, 2026 - 04:00
1 1.19
0 1.41
xG Accuracy: 64%
Lambton Jaffas Lambton Jaffas

The model missed the final outcome (Cooks Hill United win 1–0).

The model had projected Lambton Jaffas at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lambton Jaffas Cooks Hill United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +5.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cooks Hill United 30.1% 30.9% -0.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 24.0% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Lambton Jaffas 40.4% 45.1% -4.6 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.0%, a difference of 5.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cooks Hill United win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Lambton Jaffas; match finished Cooks Hill United

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lambton Jaffas by 5.4 percentage points (35.0% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cooks Hill United 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Lambton Jaffas 40.5%
    • xG · Cooks Hill United 1.19 — Lambton Jaffas 1.41
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cooks Hill United 2.93 · Draw 3.77 · Lambton Jaffas 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Cooks Hill United 30.9% · Draw 24.0% · Lambton Jaffas 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cooks Hill United 2.93 · Draw 3.77 · Lambton Jaffas 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Cooks Hill United 30.9% · Draw 24.0% · Lambton Jaffas 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cooks Hill United win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449611

Closing Odds 3.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cooks Hill United win · Cooks Hill United 1–0 Lambton Jaffas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Northern NSW NPL
  • Fixture: Cooks Hill United vs Lambton Jaffas
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 04:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Cooks Hill United 1.19 — Lambton Jaffas 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Northern NSW NPL Matches Track Cooks Hill United Next Match Prediction Track Lambton Jaffas Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Cooks Hill United & Lambton Jaffas!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Northern NSW NPL Northern NSW NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 15 4 3 49
2 Maitland 22 13 3 6 42
3 Weston Bears 22 12 5 5 41
4 Edgeworth Eagles 22 11 6 5 39
5 Belmont Swansea 22 10 5 7 35
6 Cooks Hill United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Valentine 22 7 5 10 26
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 7 4 11 25
9 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 6 6 10 24
10 Hamilton Olympic 22 5 6 11 21
11 Kahibah 22 6 2 14 20
12 Charlestown City Blues 22 4 2 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 59 23 +36 49
2 Weston Bears 22 48 33 +15 41
3 Belmont Swansea 22 47 44 +3 35
4 Cooks Hill United 22 43 36 +7 33
5 Edgeworth Eagles 22 41 31 +10 39
6 Maitland 22 40 32 +8 42
7 Hamilton Olympic 22 39 40 -1 21
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 38 33 +5 25
9 Kahibah 22 35 53 -18 20
10 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 34 45 -11 24
11 Charlestown City Blues 22 25 62 -37 14
12 Valentine 22 22 39 -17 26