Predictions / Football / Australia. Northern NSW NPL / Cooks Hill United vs Broadmeadow Magic

Prediction Audit: Cooks Hill United vs Broadmeadow Magic Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cooks Hill United Cooks Hill United
Jul 31, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.13
1 1.47
xG Accuracy: 64%
Broadmeadow Magic Broadmeadow Magic

AI correctly predicted the Broadmeadow Magic win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Broadmeadow Magic Broadmeadow Magic ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Broadmeadow Magic higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Broadmeadow Magic -16.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cooks Hill United 27.5% 21.4% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.1% 19.2% +10.0 pp Model Higher
Broadmeadow Magic 43.4% 59.5% -16.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Broadmeadow Magic's win probability at 59.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Broadmeadow Magic win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Broadmeadow Magic than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Broadmeadow Magic higher (59.5% vs model 43.4%, 16.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Broadmeadow Magic win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 30, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cooks Hill United 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Broadmeadow Magic 43.3%
    • xG · Cooks Hill United 1.13 — Broadmeadow Magic 1.47
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cooks Hill United 4.29 · Draw 4.78 · Broadmeadow Magic 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Cooks Hill United 21.4% · Draw 19.2% · Broadmeadow Magic 59.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cooks Hill United 4.29 · Draw 4.78 · Broadmeadow Magic 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Cooks Hill United 21.4% · Draw 19.2% · Broadmeadow Magic 59.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Broadmeadow Magic win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1458525

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Broadmeadow Magic win · Cooks Hill United 0–1 Broadmeadow Magic
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Northern NSW NPL
  • Fixture: Cooks Hill United vs Broadmeadow Magic
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Cooks Hill United 1.13 — Broadmeadow Magic 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Northern NSW NPL Northern NSW NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 15 4 3 49
2 Maitland 22 13 3 6 42
3 Weston Bears 22 12 5 5 41
4 Edgeworth Eagles 22 11 6 5 39
5 Belmont Swansea 22 10 5 7 35
6 Cooks Hill United 22 9 6 7 33
7 Valentine 22 7 5 10 26
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 7 4 11 25
9 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 6 6 10 24
10 Hamilton Olympic 22 5 6 11 21
11 Kahibah 22 6 2 14 20
12 Charlestown City Blues 22 4 2 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Broadmeadow Magic 22 59 23 +36 49
2 Weston Bears 22 48 33 +15 41
3 Belmont Swansea 22 47 44 +3 35
4 Cooks Hill United 22 43 36 +7 33
5 Edgeworth Eagles 22 41 31 +10 39
6 Maitland 22 40 32 +8 42
7 Hamilton Olympic 22 39 40 -1 21
8 Lambton Jaffas 22 38 33 +5 25
9 Kahibah 22 35 53 -18 20
10 Adamstown Rosebuds 22 34 45 -11 24
11 Charlestown City Blues 22 25 62 -37 14
12 Valentine 22 22 39 -17 26