Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown

Prediction Audit: Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tianjin Teda Tianjin Teda
Sep 06, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.48
1 1.00
xG Accuracy: 87%
Hangzhou Greentown Hangzhou Greentown

AI correctly predicted the Tianjin Teda win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tianjin Teda Tianjin Teda ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Hangzhou Greentown higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hangzhou Greentown -13.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tianjin Teda 46.7% 36.2% +10.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.4% 26.2% +3.2 pp Aligned
Hangzhou Greentown 23.9% 37.6% -13.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hangzhou Greentown's win probability at 37.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 23.9%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tianjin Teda win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Hangzhou Greentown than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Tianjin Teda attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.00)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tianjin Teda higher (60.4% vs model 46.7%, 13.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tianjin Teda win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tianjin Teda 46.7% · Draw 29.4% · Hangzhou Greentown 23.9%
    • xG · Tianjin Teda 1.48 — Hangzhou Greentown 1.00
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tianjin Teda 2.66 · Draw 3.68 · Hangzhou Greentown 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Tianjin Teda 36.2% · Draw 26.2% · Hangzhou Greentown 37.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tianjin Teda 2.66 · Draw 3.68 · Hangzhou Greentown 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Tianjin Teda 36.2% · Draw 26.2% · Hangzhou Greentown 37.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tianjin Teda win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6326935

Closing Odds 2.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tianjin Teda win · Tianjin Teda 2–1 Hangzhou Greentown
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Hangzhou Greentown
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Tianjin Teda 1.48 — Hangzhou Greentown 1.0 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27