Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon

Prediction Audit: Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dalian Zhixing Dalian Zhixing
Sep 05, 2026 - 11:35
2 1.81
1 1.72
xG Accuracy: 78%
Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon

AI correctly predicted the Dalian Zhixing win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dalian Zhixing Dalian Zhixing ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dalian Zhixing higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dalian Zhixing -31.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dalian Zhixing 39.6% 70.8% -31.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.5% 17.4% +7.1 pp Model Higher
Qingdao Jonoon 35.9% 11.7% +24.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dalian Zhixing's win probability at 70.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.6%, a difference of 31.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dalian Zhixing win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.53) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dalian Zhixing higher (70.8% vs model 39.6%, 31.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dalian Zhixing win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dalian Zhixing 39.6% · Draw 24.5% · Qingdao Jonoon 35.9%
    • xG · Dalian Zhixing 1.81 — Qingdao Jonoon 1.72
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Zhixing 1.35 · Draw 5.48 · Qingdao Jonoon 8.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Zhixing 70.8% · Draw 17.4% · Qingdao Jonoon 11.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:27 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Zhixing 1.35 · Draw 5.48 · Qingdao Jonoon 8.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Zhixing 70.8% · Draw 17.4% · Qingdao Jonoon 11.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dalian Zhixing win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6130506

Closing Odds 1.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dalian Zhixing win · Dalian Zhixing 2–1 Qingdao Jonoon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Dalian Zhixing; market prices Dalian Zhixing instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Dalian Zhixing 1.81 xG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.72 → Dalian Zhixing 39.6%
  • Market: Dalian Zhixing ~70.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27