Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long

Prediction Audit: Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island
Aug 14, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.90
0 1.72
xG Accuracy: 37%
Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Qingdao Youth Island at 41.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Qingdao Youth Island Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Chongqing Tongliang Long +8.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Qingdao Youth Island 41.6% 44.4% -2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 24.1% 29.9% -5.8 pp Market Higher
Chongqing Tongliang Long 34.3% 25.7% +8.6 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Chongqing Tongliang Long's win probability at 34.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.7%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Chongqing Tongliang Long.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Qingdao Youth Island by 8.6 percentage points (33.0% vs model 41.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 19:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 41.6% · Draw 24.0% · Chongqing Tongliang Long 34.3%
    • xG · Qingdao Youth Island 1.90 — Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.72
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Qingdao Youth Island 2.17 · Draw 3.22 · Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 44.4% · Draw 29.9% · Chongqing Tongliang Long 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Qingdao Youth Island 2.17 · Draw 3.22 · Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 44.4% · Draw 29.9% · Chongqing Tongliang Long 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 57/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3225889

Closing Odds 3.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Qingdao Youth Island 0–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Qingdao Youth Island 1.9 — Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.72 (total xG ≈ 3.62)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27