Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon

Prediction Audit: Shandong Luneng vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng
Aug 14, 2026 - 11:35
3 1.91
1 1.95
xG Accuracy: 57%
Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon

The model missed the final outcome (Shandong Luneng win 3–1).

The model had projected Qingdao Jonoon at 39.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Qingdao Jonoon Shandong Luneng ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Shandong Luneng higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Shandong Luneng -31.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shandong Luneng 37.6% 69.2% -31.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 23.1% 16.7% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Qingdao Jonoon 39.2% 14.1% +25.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Shandong Luneng's win probability at 69.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.6%, a difference of 31.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Shandong Luneng win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.86) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Qingdao Jonoon; match finished Shandong Luneng
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Qingdao Jonoon by 31.6 percentage points (70.8% vs model 39.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 19:08 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shandong Luneng 37.6% · Draw 23.2% · Qingdao Jonoon 39.2%
    • xG · Shandong Luneng 1.91 — Qingdao Jonoon 1.95
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shandong Luneng 1.38 · Draw 5.72 · Qingdao Jonoon 6.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Shandong Luneng 69.2% · Draw 16.7% · Qingdao Jonoon 14.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shandong Luneng 1.38 · Draw 5.72 · Qingdao Jonoon 6.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Shandong Luneng 69.2% · Draw 16.7% · Qingdao Jonoon 14.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Shandong Luneng win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3225764

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Shandong Luneng win · Shandong Luneng 3–1 Qingdao Jonoon
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Qingdao Jonoon; market prices Shandong Luneng instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Shandong Luneng 1.91 xG vs Qingdao Jonoon 1.95 → Qingdao Jonoon 39.2%
  • Market: Shandong Luneng ~14.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27