Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon

Prediction Audit: Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island
Aug 02, 2026 - 10:00
2 2.82
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 57%
Qingdao Jonoon Qingdao Jonoon

AI correctly predicted the Qingdao Youth Island win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 3-0, 1-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Qingdao Youth Island considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Qingdao Youth Island +24.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Qingdao Youth Island 69.6% 45.1% +24.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 17.1% 25.6% -8.4 pp Market Higher
Qingdao Jonoon 13.3% 29.3% -16.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Qingdao Youth Island's win probability at 69.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 45.1%, a difference of 24.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Qingdao Youth Island win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Qingdao Youth Island attacking xG significantly stronger (2.82 vs 1.23)
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Qingdao Youth Island more conservatively (45.1% vs model 69.6%, 24.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Qingdao Youth Island win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 69.6% · Draw 17.1% · Qingdao Jonoon 13.3%
    • xG · Qingdao Youth Island 2.82 — Qingdao Jonoon 1.23
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Qingdao Youth Island 2.13 · Draw 3.76 · Qingdao Jonoon 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 45.1% · Draw 25.6% · Qingdao Jonoon 29.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Qingdao Youth Island 2.13 · Draw 3.76 · Qingdao Jonoon 3.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 45.1% · Draw 25.6% · Qingdao Jonoon 29.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Qingdao Youth Island win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 39/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (109%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 25/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1941994

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Qingdao Youth Island win · Qingdao Youth Island 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 69.6% · Draw 17.2% · Away 13.3%
  • xG (showing): Qingdao Youth Island 2.82 — Qingdao Jonoon 1.23 (total xG ≈ 4.05)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Qingdao Youth Island
  • Model: 69.6% · Implied: 45.1% · Probability edge: +24.4 pts · Est. EV: +11.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 67.3% · No 32.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27