Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye

Prediction Audit: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng
Jul 26, 2026 - 11:35
1 2.88
2 1.68
xG Accuracy: 55%
Henan Jianye Henan Jianye

The model missed the final outcome (Henan Jianye win 1–2).

The model had projected Shandong Luneng at 61.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Shandong Luneng Henan Jianye ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 3-2, 1-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Shandong Luneng considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Shandong Luneng +14.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shandong Luneng 61.9% 47.4% +14.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 18.1% 23.8% -5.7 pp Market Higher
Henan Jianye 20.1% 28.9% -8.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Shandong Luneng's win probability at 61.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 47.4%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Henan Jianye win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Shandong Luneng.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.56) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Shandong Luneng; match finished Henan Jianye
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Shandong Luneng by 14.5 percentage points (47.4% vs model 61.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shandong Luneng 61.8% · Draw 18.1% · Henan Jianye 20.1%
    • xG · Shandong Luneng 2.88 — Henan Jianye 1.68
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shandong Luneng 2.03 · Draw 4.04 · Henan Jianye 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Shandong Luneng 47.4% · Draw 23.8% · Henan Jianye 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shandong Luneng 2.03 · Draw 4.04 · Henan Jianye 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Shandong Luneng 47.4% · Draw 23.8% · Henan Jianye 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Henan Jianye win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 44/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (113%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 27/100
Betting Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3073143

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds 1.62
CLV Pending
Final Result Henan Jianye win · Shandong Luneng 1–2 Henan Jianye
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 61.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Chinese Super League
  • Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 11:35:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Shandong Luneng 2.88 — Henan Jianye 1.68 (total xG ≈ 4.56)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27