Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu

Prediction Audit: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yunnan Yukun Yunnan Yukun
Jul 26, 2026 - 11:00
4 2.94
3 0.96
xG Accuracy: 43%
Sichuan Jiuniu Sichuan Jiuniu

AI correctly predicted the Yunnan Yukun win.

The match finished 4–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yunnan Yukun Yunnan Yukun ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Yunnan Yukun considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Yunnan Yukun +13.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yunnan Yukun 70.9% 57.1% +13.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 17.3% 21.5% -4.2 pp Aligned
Sichuan Jiuniu 11.8% 21.4% -9.6 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Yunnan Yukun's win probability at 70.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 57.1%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yunnan Yukun win 4–3).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Yunnan Yukun.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.90) — 7 goals materialised
  • Yunnan Yukun attacking xG significantly stronger (2.94 vs 0.96)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yunnan Yukun more conservatively (57.0% vs model 70.9%, 13.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yunnan Yukun win 4–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yunnan Yukun 70.9% · Draw 17.3% · Sichuan Jiuniu 11.8%
    • xG · Yunnan Yukun 2.94 — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yunnan Yukun 1.68 · Draw 4.45 · Sichuan Jiuniu 4.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Yunnan Yukun 57.1% · Draw 21.5% · Sichuan Jiuniu 21.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yunnan Yukun 1.68 · Draw 4.45 · Sichuan Jiuniu 4.48
    • Implied 1X2 · Yunnan Yukun 57.1% · Draw 21.5% · Sichuan Jiuniu 21.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yunnan Yukun win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 44/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (118%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100
Betting Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454146

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds 1.3
CLV Pending
Final Result Yunnan Yukun win · Yunnan Yukun 4–3 Sichuan Jiuniu
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 76.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 75–80% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Chinese Super League
  • Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Yunnan Yukun 2.94 — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 (total xG ≈ 3.9)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27