Predictions / Football / Benin. Championnat National / Bani Gansè vs USSK

Prediction Audit: Bani Gansè vs USSK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bani Gansè Bani Gansè
Jun 20, 2026 - 15:00
1 0.79
0 0.90
xG Accuracy: 74%
USSK USSK

The model missed the final outcome (Bani Gansè win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Bani Gansè ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.69, 1 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Bani Gansè

Market lesson

The full-time result was Bani Gansè win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 20, 2026 · 20:35 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bani Gansè 0.79 — USSK 0.90
  2. Jun 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Bani Gansè win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 03:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3238528

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bani Gansè win · Bani Gansè 1–0 USSK
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Championnat National
  • Fixture: Bani Gansè vs USSK
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.2% · Draw 37.5% · Away 34.4%
  • xG (showing): Bani Gansè 0.79 — USSK 0.9 (total xG ≈ 1.69)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 76.0% · Over 2.5 24.0%); BTTS No (Yes 34.1% · No 65.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 34.1% · No 65.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (18.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Championnat National Championnat National — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 USSK 33 20 7 6 67
2 Coton Sport Ouidah 33 17 10 6 61
3 ASPAC 33 16 11 6 59
4 Loto Popo 33 17 6 10 57
5 Buffles 33 13 11 9 50
6 Dynamo Abomey 33 12 13 8 49
7 Espoir Savalou 33 13 9 11 48
8 AS Cotonou 33 11 13 9 46
9 Hodio 33 11 11 11 44
10 ASVO 33 11 9 13 42
11 Damissa 33 9 15 9 42
12 Ayema 33 9 12 12 39
13 Kraké 33 7 15 11 36
14 Dragons 33 9 9 15 36
15 Bani Gansè 33 7 14 12 35
16 Cavaliers 33 8 11 14 35
17 JSP 33 6 14 13 32
18 Dadjè 33 3 6 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ASPAC 33 46 22 +24 59
2 Coton Sport Ouidah 33 40 21 +19 61
3 Loto Popo 33 38 22 +16 57
4 Hodio 33 36 31 +5 44
5 USSK 33 33 18 +15 67
6 Buffles 33 32 22 +10 50
7 Espoir Savalou 33 32 33 -1 48
8 Damissa 33 32 36 -4 42
9 Kraké 33 31 37 -6 36
10 JSP 33 30 36 -6 32
11 Dragons 33 30 44 -14 36
12 ASVO 33 28 30 -2 42
13 Cavaliers 33 27 36 -9 35
14 Dynamo Abomey 33 25 22 +3 49
15 Bani Gansè 33 25 31 -6 35
16 Dadjè 33 25 73 -48 15
17 AS Cotonou 33 24 19 +5 46
18 Ayema 33 18 19 -1 39
Championnat National Benin. Championnat National Predictions