Predictions / Football / Benin. Championnat National / USSK vs AS Cotonou

Prediction Audit: USSK vs AS Cotonou Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

USSK USSK
Jun 13, 2026 - 15:00
1 0.88
0 0.78
xG Accuracy: 78%
AS Cotonou AS Cotonou

The model missed the final outcome (USSK win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 37.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw USSK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.66, 1 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished USSK

Market lesson

The full-time result was USSK win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · USSK 0.88 — AS Cotonou 0.78
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result USSK win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 17:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1620482

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result USSK win · USSK 1–0 AS Cotonou
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Championnat National
  • Fixture: USSK vs AS Cotonou
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.9% · Draw 37.9% · Away 28.2%
  • xG (showing): USSK 0.88 — AS Cotonou 0.78 (total xG ≈ 1.66)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 76.8% · Over 2.5 23.2%); BTTS No (Yes 33.4% · No 66.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 33.4% · No 66.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (19.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Championnat National Championnat National — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 USSK 33 20 7 6 67
2 Coton Sport Ouidah 33 17 10 6 61
3 ASPAC 33 16 11 6 59
4 Loto Popo 33 17 6 10 57
5 Buffles 33 13 11 9 50
6 Dynamo Abomey 33 12 13 8 49
7 Espoir Savalou 33 13 9 11 48
8 AS Cotonou 33 11 13 9 46
9 Hodio 33 11 11 11 44
10 ASVO 33 11 9 13 42
11 Damissa 33 9 15 9 42
12 Ayema 33 9 12 12 39
13 Kraké 33 7 15 11 36
14 Dragons 33 9 9 15 36
15 Bani Gansè 33 7 14 12 35
16 Cavaliers 33 8 11 14 35
17 JSP 33 6 14 13 32
18 Dadjè 33 3 6 24 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 ASPAC 33 46 22 +24 59
2 Coton Sport Ouidah 33 40 21 +19 61
3 Loto Popo 33 38 22 +16 57
4 Hodio 33 36 31 +5 44
5 USSK 33 33 18 +15 67
6 Buffles 33 32 22 +10 50
7 Espoir Savalou 33 32 33 -1 48
8 Damissa 33 32 36 -4 42
9 Kraké 33 31 37 -6 36
10 JSP 33 30 36 -6 32
11 Dragons 33 30 44 -14 36
12 ASVO 33 28 30 -2 42
13 Cavaliers 33 27 36 -9 35
14 Dynamo Abomey 33 25 22 +3 49
15 Bani Gansè 33 25 31 -6 35
16 Dadjè 33 25 73 -48 15
17 AS Cotonou 33 24 19 +5 46
18 Ayema 33 18 19 -1 39
Championnat National Benin. Championnat National Predictions