Predictions / Football / Brazil. Brasileiro Women / Bahia W vs Corinthians W

Prediction Audit: Bahia W vs Corinthians W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bahia W Bahia W
Aug 15, 2026 - 20:30
1 1.14
1 1.46
xG Accuracy: 85%
Corinthians W Corinthians W

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Corinthians W at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Corinthians W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Corinthians W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Corinthians W -16.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bahia W 27.9% 16.4% +11.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.2% 23.9% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Corinthians W 42.9% 59.8% -16.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Corinthians W's win probability at 59.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Corinthians W than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Corinthians W; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Corinthians W by 16.9 percentage points (59.8% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bahia W 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Corinthians W 42.9%
    • xG · Bahia W 1.14 — Corinthians W 1.46
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bahia W 5.58 · Draw 3.83 · Corinthians W 1.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Bahia W 16.4% · Draw 23.9% · Corinthians W 59.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bahia W 5.58 · Draw 3.83 · Corinthians W 1.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Bahia W 16.4% · Draw 23.9% · Corinthians W 59.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3368728

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bahia W 1–1 Corinthians W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Brasileiro Women
  • Fixture: Bahia W vs Corinthians W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): Bahia W 1.14 — Corinthians W 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Brasileiro Women Brasileiro Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 São Paulo W 17 13 2 2 41
2 Corinthians W 17 12 2 3 38
3 Palmeiras W 17 10 6 1 36
4 Ferroviaria W 17 8 7 2 31
5 Flamengo W 17 8 6 3 30
6 Bahia W 17 8 5 4 29
7 Cruzeiro W 17 7 7 3 28
8 Gremio W 17 8 3 6 27
9 Internacional RS W 17 8 3 6 27
10 RB Bragantino W 17 8 2 7 26
11 Fluminense W 17 7 5 5 26
12 Santos W 17 6 5 6 23
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 4 4 9 16
14 Mixto W 17 2 6 9 12
15 Juventude W 17 2 5 10 11
16 America Mineiro W 17 1 4 12 7
17 Vitória BA W 17 1 4 12 7
18 Botafogo W 17 1 2 14 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Corinthians W 17 42 18 +24 38
2 Palmeiras W 17 32 11 +21 36
3 São Paulo W 17 31 11 +20 41
4 Cruzeiro W 17 30 19 +11 28
5 Bahia W 17 30 21 +9 29
6 RB Bragantino W 17 30 26 +4 26
7 Flamengo W 17 29 20 +9 30
8 Ferroviaria W 17 23 14 +9 31
9 Gremio W 17 23 16 +7 27
10 Fluminense W 17 23 19 +4 26
11 Santos W 17 22 23 -1 23
12 Internacional RS W 17 21 17 +4 27
13 Atlético Mineiro W 17 17 25 -8 16
14 Vitória BA W 17 15 45 -30 7
15 Mixto W 17 10 27 -17 12
16 Botafogo W 17 10 38 -28 5
17 Juventude W 17 9 22 -13 11
18 America Mineiro W 17 9 34 -25 7
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