Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Tulevik vs Levadia U19

Prediction Audit: Tulevik vs Levadia U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tulevik Tulevik
Aug 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.31
4 1.29
xG Accuracy: 44%
Levadia U19 Levadia U19

The model missed the final outcome (Levadia U19 win 1–4).

The model had projected Tulevik at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tulevik Levadia U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tulevik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tulevik -11.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tulevik 35.6% 47.3% -11.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.0% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Levadia U19 34.7% 31.8% +3.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Tulevik's win probability at 47.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Levadia U19 win 1–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tulevik than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Tulevik; match finished Levadia U19

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tulevik by 11.7 percentage points (47.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tulevik 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Levadia U19 34.7%
    • xG · Tulevik 1.31 — Levadia U19 1.29
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tulevik 1.88 · Draw 4.24 · Levadia U19 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Tulevik 47.3% · Draw 21.0% · Levadia U19 31.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tulevik 1.88 · Draw 4.24 · Levadia U19 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Tulevik 47.3% · Draw 21.0% · Levadia U19 31.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Levadia U19 win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3602461

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Levadia U19 win · Tulevik 1–4 Levadia U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Tulevik vs Levadia U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Tulevik 1.31 — Levadia U19 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 29 19 3 7 60
2 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
3 Levadia U19 29 17 2 10 53
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
4 Tartu Kalev 29 15 2 12 47
5 Luunja 29 14 5 10 47
6 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
7 Tulevik 29 13 5 11 44
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Levadia U19 29 74 52 +22 53
3 Tulevik 29 74 60 +14 44
4 Luunja 29 74 62 +12 47
5 Tartu Kalev 29 71 52 +19 47
6 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
7 Narva U21 29 69 35 +34 60
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 29 28 111 -83 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions