Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / JK Tabasalu vs Tallinna Kalev II

Prediction Audit: JK Tabasalu vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

JK Tabasalu JK Tabasalu
Aug 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 85%
Tallinna Kalev II Tallinna Kalev II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Tallinna Kalev II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tallinna Kalev II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
JK Tabasalu 33.8% 34.7% -0.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 22.2% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Tallinna Kalev II 36.6% 43.1% -6.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.2%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Tallinna Kalev II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tallinna Kalev II by 7.5 percentage points (29.1% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · JK Tabasalu 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Tallinna Kalev II 36.6%
    • xG · JK Tabasalu 1.27 — Tallinna Kalev II 1.33
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · JK Tabasalu 2.56 · Draw 4.01 · Tallinna Kalev II 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · JK Tabasalu 34.7% · Draw 22.2% · Tallinna Kalev II 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · JK Tabasalu 2.56 · Draw 4.01 · Tallinna Kalev II 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · JK Tabasalu 34.7% · Draw 22.2% · Tallinna Kalev II 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3602416

Closing Odds 4.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · JK Tabasalu 1–1 Tallinna Kalev II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: JK Tabasalu vs Tallinna Kalev II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): JK Tabasalu 1.27 — Tallinna Kalev II 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 30 14 5 11 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 30 80 61 +19 47
3 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 30 29 113 -84 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions