Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Luunja vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Prediction Audit: Luunja vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Luunja Luunja
Aug 10, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.46
2 1.14
xG Accuracy: 68%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Parnu JK Vaprus U21

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Luunja at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Luunja Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Luunja higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Luunja -13.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Luunja 42.9% 56.5% -13.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 18.7% +10.5 pp Model Edge
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 27.9% 24.7% +3.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Luunja's win probability at 56.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Luunja than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Luunja; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Luunja by 13.7 percentage points (56.6% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Luunja 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 27.9%
    • xG · Luunja 1.46 — Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.14
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Luunja 1.57 · Draw 4.74 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 3.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Luunja 56.5% · Draw 18.7% · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 24.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Luunja 1.57 · Draw 4.74 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 3.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Luunja 56.5% · Draw 18.7% · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 24.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 31/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2972053

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Luunja 2–2 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Luunja vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Luunja 1.46 — Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 30 14 5 11 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 30 80 61 +19 47
3 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 30 29 113 -84 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions