Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Legion vs Narva U21

Prediction Audit: Legion vs Narva U21 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Legion Legion
Aug 09, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.13
3 1.47
xG Accuracy: 63%
Narva U21 Narva U21

AI correctly predicted the Narva U21 win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Narva U21 Narva U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Narva U21 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Narva U21 -44.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Legion 27.5% 5.7% +21.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.1% 6.2% +23.0 pp Model Edge
Narva U21 43.4% 88.2% -44.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Narva U21's win probability at 88.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 44.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Narva U21 win 1–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Narva U21 higher (88.2% vs model 43.4%, 44.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Narva U21 win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Legion 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Narva U21 43.3%
    • xG · Legion 1.13 — Narva U21 1.47
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Legion 16.02 · Draw 14.73 · Narva U21 1.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Legion 5.7% · Draw 6.2% · Narva U21 88.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Legion 16.02 · Draw 14.73 · Narva U21 1.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Legion 5.7% · Draw 6.2% · Narva U21 88.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Narva U21 win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 27/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (45 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2961941

Closing Odds 1.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Narva U21 win · Legion 1–3 Narva U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Narva U21; market prices Narva U21 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Legion 1.13 xG vs Narva U21 1.47 → Narva U21 43.4%
  • Market: Narva U21 ~88.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 29 19 3 7 60
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
4 Tartu Kalev 29 15 2 12 47
5 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
6 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
7 Tulevik 29 13 5 11 44
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
3 Tulevik 29 74 60 +14 44
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 29 71 52 +19 47
6 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
7 Narva U21 29 69 35 +34 60
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 29 28 111 -83 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions