Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Levadia U19

Prediction Audit: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Levadia U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Aug 03, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 52%
Levadia U19 Levadia U19

AI correctly predicted the Levadia U19 win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Levadia U19 Levadia U19 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +10.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 34.7% 41.2% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.5% +10.2 pp Model Edge
Levadia U19 35.6% 39.4% -3.7 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.5%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Levadia U19 win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Levadia U19 more conservatively (25.4% vs model 35.6%, 10.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Levadia U19 win 2–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Levadia U19 35.6%
    • xG · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.29 — Levadia U19 1.31
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2.16 · Draw 4.57 · Levadia U19 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 41.2% · Draw 19.5% · Levadia U19 39.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2.16 · Draw 4.57 · Levadia U19 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 41.2% · Draw 19.5% · Levadia U19 39.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Levadia U19 win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2132070

Closing Odds 4.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Levadia U19 win · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–3 Levadia U19
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Levadia U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.29 — Levadia U19 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 30 14 5 11 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 30 80 61 +19 47
3 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 30 29 113 -84 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions