Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Narva U21 vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Prediction Audit: Narva U21 vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Narva U21 Narva U21
Jul 19, 2026 - 09:30
4 1.44
1 1.16
xG Accuracy: 47%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Parnu JK Vaprus U21

AI correctly predicted the Narva U21 win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Narva U21 Narva U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Narva U21 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Narva U21 -11.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Narva U21 47.0% 58.7% -11.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.9% 17.6% +8.3 pp Model Higher
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 27.1% 23.8% +3.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Narva U21's win probability at 58.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.0%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Narva U21 win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Narva U21 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Narva U21 higher (58.7% vs model 47.0%, 11.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Narva U21 win 4–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Narva U21 47.0% · Draw 25.9% · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 27.1%
    • xG · Narva U21 1.44 — Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.16
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Narva U21 1.51 · Draw 5.05 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Narva U21 58.7% · Draw 17.6% · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 23.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Narva U21 1.51 · Draw 5.05 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Narva U21 58.7% · Draw 17.6% · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 23.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Narva U21 win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 00:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1519589

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Narva U21 win · Narva U21 4–1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Narva U21 vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Narva U21 1.44 — Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 30 14 5 11 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 30 80 61 +19 47
3 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 30 29 113 -84 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions