Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Legion vs JK Tabasalu

Prediction Audit: Legion vs JK Tabasalu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Legion Legion
Jul 18, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
JK Tabasalu JK Tabasalu

The model missed the final outcome (Legion win 2–0).

The model had projected JK Tabasalu at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 JK Tabasalu Legion ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices JK Tabasalu higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: JK Tabasalu -31.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Legion 33.3% 15.7% +17.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 16.0% +13.6 pp Model Edge
JK Tabasalu 37.1% 68.3% -31.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates JK Tabasalu's win probability at 68.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 31.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Legion win 2–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned JK Tabasalu; match finished Legion

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on JK Tabasalu by 31.2 percentage points (68.3% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 20:49 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Legion 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · JK Tabasalu 37.0%
    • xG · Legion 1.26 — JK Tabasalu 1.34
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Legion 5.60 · Draw 5.50 · JK Tabasalu 1.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Legion 15.7% · Draw 16.0% · JK Tabasalu 68.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Legion 5.60 · Draw 5.50 · JK Tabasalu 1.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Legion 15.7% · Draw 16.0% · JK Tabasalu 68.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Legion win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1461267

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Legion win · Legion 2–0 JK Tabasalu
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours JK Tabasalu; market prices JK Tabasalu instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Legion 1.26 xG vs JK Tabasalu 1.34 → JK Tabasalu 37.1%
  • Market: JK Tabasalu ~68.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 30 14 5 11 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 30 80 61 +19 47
3 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 30 29 113 -84 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions