Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Narva U21 vs Tulevik

Prediction Audit: Narva U21 vs Tulevik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Narva U21 Narva U21
Jul 05, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 81%
Tulevik Tulevik

AI correctly predicted the Narva U21 win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Narva U21 Narva U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Narva U21 win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 05, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Narva U21 1.41 — Tulevik 1.19
  2. Jul 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Narva U21 win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454821

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Narva U21 win · Narva U21 2–1 Tulevik
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Narva U21 vs Tulevik
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Narva U21 1.41 — Tulevik 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 31 19 2 10 59
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 31 14 5 12 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 31 8 5 18 29
10 Legion 31 3 4 24 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 31 81 64 +17 47
3 Levadia U19 31 78 52 +26 59
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 31 63 78 -15 29
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 31 29 116 -87 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions