Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / São Bernardo vs Cuiaba

Prediction Audit: São Bernardo vs Cuiaba Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

São Bernardo São Bernardo
Jul 12, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.35
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 67%
Cuiaba Cuiaba

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected São Bernardo at 38.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 São Bernardo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.54) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned São Bernardo; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 12, 2026 · 20:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · São Bernardo 1.35 — Cuiaba 1.19
  2. Jul 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 22:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2903319

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · São Bernardo 2–2 Cuiaba
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: São Bernardo vs Cuiaba
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-12 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.6% · Draw 30.7% · Away 30.7%
  • xG (showing): São Bernardo 1.35 — Cuiaba 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.54)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 53.4% · Over 2.5 46.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 59
2 Vila Nova 32 17 7 8 58
3 Novorizontino 32 16 9 7 57
4 Fortaleza EC 32 15 11 6 56
5 Criciuma 32 15 8 9 53
6 Atletico Goianiense 32 14 10 8 52
7 CRB 32 15 6 11 51
8 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 50
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 48
10 Cuiaba 32 11 14 7 47
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 45
12 São Bernardo 32 12 9 11 45
13 Nautico Recife 32 11 9 12 42
14 Ceara 32 11 9 12 42
15 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 42
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 28
19 America Mineiro 32 4 5 23 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 32 54 27 +27 57
2 CRB 32 49 45 +4 51
3 Vila Nova 32 44 31 +13 58
4 Sport Recife 32 44 34 +10 50
5 São Bernardo 32 44 34 +10 45
6 Operario-PR 32 44 43 +1 48
7 Atletico Goianiense 32 40 30 +10 52
8 Londrina 32 40 47 -7 28
9 Nautico Recife 32 39 40 -1 42
10 Athletic Club 32 38 37 +1 42
11 Juventude 32 37 19 +18 59
12 Fortaleza EC 32 37 27 +10 56
13 Botafogo SP 32 36 38 -2 38
14 Ceara 32 35 39 -4 42
15 Criciuma 32 33 28 +5 53
16 Cuiaba 32 32 25 +7 47
17 Goias 32 32 40 -8 45
18 Avai 32 32 43 -11 33
19 America Mineiro 32 21 53 -32 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 17 68 -51 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 32 17.2 9.2 +8.0 57
2 Fortaleza EC 32 16.8 10.1 +6.7 56
3 Cuiaba 32 12.3 7.0 +5.3 47
4 Atletico Goianiense 32 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avai 32 11.9 8.5 +3.4 33
6 Vila Nova 32 13.3 10.1 +3.2 58
7 CRB 32 18.6 15.8 +2.8 51
8 Juventude 32 10.2 8.0 +2.2 59
9 Criciuma 32 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 32 13.7 12.6 +1.1 50
11 Londrina 32 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 32 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo SP 32 13.7 13.8 -0.1 38
14 Nautico Recife 32 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goias 32 11.8 13.1 -1.3 45
16 Operario-PR 32 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 32 9.1 14.2 -5.1 42
18 America Mineiro 32 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 32 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 32 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions