Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Nautico Recife vs Goias

Prediction Audit: Nautico Recife vs Goias Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
Jun 28, 2026 - 21:30
0 2.65
1 1.21
xG Accuracy: 46%
Goias Goias

The model missed the final outcome (Goias win 0–1).

The model had projected Nautico Recife at 64.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nautico Recife Goias ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 1-1, 3-0 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Goias win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 28, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Nautico Recife 2.65 — Goias 1.21
  2. Jun 28, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Goias win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 45/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (96%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 47/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1655672

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 1.56
CLV Pending
Final Result Goias win · Nautico Recife 0–1 Goias
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 64.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Nautico Recife vs Goias
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 64.1% · Draw 20.1% · Away 15.8%
  • xG (showing): Nautico Recife 2.65 — Goias 1.21 (total xG ≈ 3.86)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Nautico Recife
  • Model: 64.1% · Implied: 50.5% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.1% · No 33.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 33 18 7 8 61
2 Novorizontino 33 17 9 7 60
3 Juventude 33 17 9 7 60
4 Fortaleza EC 33 15 12 6 57
5 Criciuma 33 16 8 9 56
6 Atletico Goianiense 33 14 11 8 53
7 CRB 33 15 7 11 52
8 Sport Recife 33 13 12 8 51
9 Goias 33 14 6 13 48
10 Operario-PR 33 13 9 11 48
11 Cuiaba 33 11 14 8 47
12 São Bernardo 33 12 10 11 46
13 Athletic Club 33 10 13 10 43
14 Nautico Recife 33 11 9 13 42
15 Ceara 33 11 9 13 42
16 Botafogo SP 33 11 8 14 41
17 Avai 33 10 6 17 36
18 Londrina 33 7 8 18 29
19 America Mineiro 33 4 5 24 17
20 Ponte Preta 33 3 4 26 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 33 59 28 +31 60
2 CRB 33 51 47 +4 52
3 Vila Nova 33 46 31 +15 61
4 São Bernardo 33 46 36 +10 46
5 Sport Recife 33 45 35 +10 51
6 Operario-PR 33 44 45 -1 48
7 Londrina 33 42 49 -7 29
8 Atletico Goianiense 33 41 31 +10 53
9 Athletic Club 33 40 39 +1 43
10 Juventude 33 39 21 +18 60
11 Fortaleza EC 33 39 29 +10 57
12 Nautico Recife 33 39 42 -3 42
13 Botafogo SP 33 37 38 -1 41
14 Ceara 33 35 40 -5 42
15 Criciuma 33 34 28 +6 56
16 Goias 33 34 40 -6 48
17 Avai 33 33 43 -10 36
18 Cuiaba 33 32 26 +6 47
19 America Mineiro 33 21 54 -33 17
20 Ponte Preta 33 18 73 -55 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 33 19.0 10.4 +8.6 60
2 Cuiaba 33 14.1 7.2 +6.9 47
3 Fortaleza EC 33 16.8 10.1 +6.7 57
4 Atletico Goianiense 33 16.8 12.9 +3.9 53
5 Juventude 33 12.8 9.3 +3.5 60
6 Vila Nova 33 13.9 10.7 +3.2 61
7 Criciuma 33 11.5 8.3 +3.2 56
8 CRB 33 18.6 15.8 +2.8 52
9 Londrina 33 12.5 10.9 +1.6 29
10 Avai 33 12.0 10.4 +1.6 36
11 Sport Recife 33 15.5 14.2 +1.3 51
12 Botafogo SP 33 14.6 14.3 +0.3 41
13 Nautico Recife 33 15.9 16.6 -0.7 42
14 São Bernardo 33 13.9 15.2 -1.3 46
15 Goias 33 12.8 14.8 -2.0 48
16 Operario-PR 33 14.5 17.2 -2.7 48
17 Ceara 33 9.6 15.1 -5.5 42
18 America Mineiro 33 11.9 18.4 -6.5 17
19 Athletic Club 33 13.3 21.4 -8.1 43
20 Ponte Preta 33 9.9 26.5 -16.6 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions