Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Cuiaba vs Londrina

Prediction Audit: Cuiaba vs Londrina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cuiaba Cuiaba
Jun 25, 2026 - 23:30
2 1.34
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 69%
Londrina Londrina

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Cuiaba at 36.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cuiaba Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.63) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Cuiaba; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 25, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Cuiaba 1.34 — Londrina 1.29
  2. Jun 25, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1535584

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Cuiaba 2–2 Londrina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Cuiaba vs Londrina
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-25 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 34.1%
  • xG (showing): Cuiaba 1.34 — Londrina 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.63)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.1% · Over 2.5 48.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 55.1% · No 44.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.1% · No 44.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 31 17 6 8 57
2 Juventude 31 16 8 7 56
3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 54
4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 53
5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 53
6 Atletico Goianiense 31 14 10 7 52
7 CRB 31 14 6 11 48
8 Operario-PR 31 13 9 9 48
9 Sport Recife 31 12 11 8 47
10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 46
11 São Bernardo 31 12 9 10 45
12 Goias 31 12 6 13 42
13 Nautico Recife 31 11 9 11 42
14 Athletic Club 31 10 12 9 42
15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 39
16 Botafogo SP 31 9 8 14 35
17 Avai 31 8 6 17 30
18 Londrina 31 7 7 17 28
19 America Mineiro 31 4 5 22 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 3 4 24 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 52 27 +25 54
2 CRB 31 46 44 +2 48
3 Vila Nova 31 44 31 +13 57
4 São Bernardo 31 43 32 +11 45
5 Operario-PR 31 43 41 +2 48
6 Sport Recife 31 42 33 +9 47
7 Atletico Goianiense 31 39 27 +12 52
8 Nautico Recife 31 39 38 +1 42
9 Londrina 31 39 45 -6 28
10 Athletic Club 31 37 35 +2 42
11 Fortaleza EC 31 36 27 +9 53
12 Juventude 31 35 19 +16 56
13 Botafogo SP 31 34 37 -3 35
14 Ceara 31 34 39 -5 39
15 Criciuma 31 33 27 +6 53
16 Cuiaba 31 32 25 +7 46
17 Goias 31 30 39 -9 42
18 Avai 31 30 42 -12 30
19 America Mineiro 31 21 52 -31 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 17 66 -49 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 17.2 9.2 +8.0 54
2 Fortaleza EC 31 16.8 10.1 +6.7 53
3 Cuiaba 31 12.3 7.0 +5.3 46
4 Atletico Goianiense 31 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avai 31 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 31 13.3 10.1 +3.2 57
7 CRB 31 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 31 10.2 8.0 +2.2 56
9 Criciuma 31 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 31 13.7 12.6 +1.1 47
11 Londrina 31 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 31 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo SP 31 13.7 13.8 -0.1 35
14 Nautico Recife 31 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goias 31 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 31 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 31 9.1 14.2 -5.1 39
18 America Mineiro 31 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 31 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 31 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions