Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Ceara vs Botafogo SP

Prediction Audit: Ceara vs Botafogo SP Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ceara Ceara
Jun 20, 2026 - 22:00
0 1.87
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 57%
Botafogo SP Botafogo SP

The model missed the final outcome (Botafogo SP win 0–1).

The model had projected Ceara at 51.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ceara Botafogo SP ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Botafogo SP win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 20, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Ceara 1.87 — Botafogo SP 1.19
  2. Jun 20, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Botafogo SP win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1632843

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Botafogo SP win · Ceara 0–1 Botafogo SP
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Ceara vs Botafogo SP
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 51.1% · Draw 26.5% · Away 22.4%
  • xG (showing): Ceara 1.87 — Botafogo SP 1.19 (total xG ≈ 3.06)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.0% · Over 2.5 59.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.2% · No 39.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.2% · No 39.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 08, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventude 32 17 8 7 59
2 Vila Nova 31 17 6 8 57
3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 54
4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 53
5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 53
6 Atletico Goianiense 31 14 10 7 52
7 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 50
8 CRB 31 14 6 11 48
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 48
10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 46
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 45
12 São Bernardo 32 12 9 11 45
13 Nautico Recife 31 11 9 11 42
14 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 42
15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 39
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 28
19 America Mineiro 31 4 5 22 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 52 27 +25 54
2 CRB 31 46 44 +2 48
3 Vila Nova 31 44 31 +13 57
4 Sport Recife 32 44 34 +10 50
5 São Bernardo 32 44 34 +10 45
6 Operario-PR 32 44 43 +1 48
7 Londrina 32 40 47 -7 28
8 Atletico Goianiense 31 39 27 +12 52
9 Nautico Recife 31 39 38 +1 42
10 Athletic Club 32 38 37 +1 42
11 Juventude 32 37 19 +18 59
12 Fortaleza EC 31 36 27 +9 53
13 Botafogo SP 32 36 38 -2 38
14 Ceara 31 34 39 -5 39
15 Criciuma 31 33 27 +6 53
16 Cuiaba 31 32 25 +7 46
17 Goias 32 32 40 -8 45
18 Avai 32 32 43 -11 33
19 America Mineiro 31 21 52 -31 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 17 68 -51 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 17.2 9.2 +8.0 54
2 Fortaleza EC 31 16.8 10.1 +6.7 53
3 Cuiaba 31 12.3 7.0 +5.3 46
4 Atletico Goianiense 31 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avai 32 11.9 8.5 +3.4 33
6 Vila Nova 31 13.3 10.1 +3.2 57
7 CRB 31 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 32 10.2 8.0 +2.2 59
9 Criciuma 31 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 32 13.7 12.6 +1.1 50
11 Londrina 32 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 32 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo SP 32 13.7 13.8 -0.1 38
14 Nautico Recife 31 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goias 32 11.8 13.1 -1.3 45
16 Operario-PR 32 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 31 9.1 14.2 -5.1 39
18 America Mineiro 31 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 32 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 32 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions