Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Atletico Goianiense vs CRB

Prediction Audit: Atletico Goianiense vs CRB Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense
Jun 12, 2026 - 22:00
3 2.61
3 1.23
xG Accuracy: 55%
CRB CRB

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Atletico Goianiense at 66.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atletico Goianiense Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 1-1, 3-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Atletico Goianiense considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Atletico Goianiense +23.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atletico Goianiense 66.1% 42.8% +23.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 18.8% 29.1% -10.3 pp Market Higher
CRB 15.1% 28.1% -13.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Atletico Goianiense's win probability at 66.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 42.8%, a difference of 23.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.84) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Atletico Goianiense; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Atletico Goianiense by 23.3 percentage points (42.8% vs model 66.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 12, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atletico Goianiense 66.1% · Draw 18.8% · CRB 15.1%
    • xG · Atletico Goianiense 2.61 — CRB 1.23
  2. Jun 12, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Atletico Goianiense 2.25 · Draw 3.31 · CRB 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Atletico Goianiense 42.8% · Draw 29.1% · CRB 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 12, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Atletico Goianiense 2.25 · Draw 3.31 · CRB 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Atletico Goianiense 42.8% · Draw 29.1% · CRB 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 12, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 39/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (93%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 25/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 00:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2279851

Closing Odds 2.25
AI Fair Odds 1.51
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Atletico Goianiense 3–3 CRB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 66.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs CRB
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-12 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 66.1% · Draw 18.8% · Away 15.1%
  • xG (showing): Atletico Goianiense 2.61 — CRB 1.23 (total xG ≈ 3.84)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.8% · Implied: 43.8% · Probability edge: +30.0 pts · Est. EV: +63.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.5% · No 33.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventude 31 16 8 7 56
2 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 54
4 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 53
5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 53
6 Atletico Goianiense 31 14 10 7 52
7 CRB 31 14 6 11 48
8 Operario-PR 31 13 9 9 48
9 Sport Recife 31 12 11 8 47
10 Cuiaba 31 11 13 7 46
11 São Bernardo 31 12 9 10 45
12 Goias 31 12 6 13 42
13 Nautico Recife 31 11 9 11 42
14 Athletic Club 31 10 12 9 42
15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 39
16 Botafogo SP 30 9 8 13 35
17 Avai 31 8 6 17 30
18 Londrina 31 7 7 17 28
19 America Mineiro 31 4 5 22 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 3 4 24 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 52 27 +25 54
2 CRB 31 46 44 +2 48
3 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
4 São Bernardo 31 43 32 +11 45
5 Operario-PR 31 43 41 +2 48
6 Sport Recife 31 42 33 +9 47
7 Atletico Goianiense 31 39 27 +12 52
8 Nautico Recife 31 39 38 +1 42
9 Londrina 31 39 45 -6 28
10 Athletic Club 31 37 35 +2 42
11 Fortaleza EC 31 36 27 +9 53
12 Juventude 31 35 19 +16 56
13 Botafogo SP 30 34 36 -2 35
14 Ceara 31 34 39 -5 39
15 Criciuma 31 33 27 +6 53
16 Cuiaba 31 32 25 +7 46
17 Goias 31 30 39 -9 42
18 Avai 31 30 42 -12 30
19 America Mineiro 31 21 52 -31 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 17 66 -49 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 31 17.2 9.2 +8.0 54
2 Fortaleza EC 31 16.8 10.1 +6.7 53
3 Cuiaba 31 12.3 7.0 +5.3 46
4 Atletico Goianiense 31 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avai 31 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 31 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 31 10.2 8.0 +2.2 56
9 Criciuma 31 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 31 13.7 12.6 +1.1 47
11 Londrina 31 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 31 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo SP 30 13.7 13.8 -0.1 35
14 Nautico Recife 31 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goias 31 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 31 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 31 9.1 14.2 -5.1 39
18 America Mineiro 31 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 31 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 31 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions