Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K3 League / Yangpyeong vs Pocheon

Prediction Audit: Yangpyeong vs Pocheon Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yangpyeong Yangpyeong
Sep 13, 2026 - 08:00
0 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 60%
Pocheon Pocheon

AI correctly predicted the Pocheon win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pocheon Pocheon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pocheon higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pocheon -20.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yangpyeong 32.4% 18.1% +14.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.7% +5.9 pp Model Higher
Pocheon 38.0% 58.2% -20.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Pocheon's win probability at 58.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 20.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pocheon win 0–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pocheon higher (58.2% vs model 38.0%, 20.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pocheon win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yangpyeong 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Pocheon 38.0%
    • xG · Yangpyeong 1.24 — Pocheon 1.36
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yangpyeong 5.06 · Draw 3.86 · Pocheon 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Yangpyeong 18.1% · Draw 23.7% · Pocheon 58.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yangpyeong 5.06 · Draw 3.86 · Pocheon 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Yangpyeong 18.1% · Draw 23.7% · Pocheon 58.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pocheon win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7419927

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pocheon win · Yangpyeong 0–2 Pocheon
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K3 League
  • Fixture: Yangpyeong vs Pocheon
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Yangpyeong 1.24 — Pocheon 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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K3 League K3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 38
4 Busan Transportation 22 10 7 5 37
5 Gyeongju HNP 22 8 8 6 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 28
9 Gangneung City 22 7 6 9 27
10 Changwon City 22 6 8 8 26
11 Yeoju Sejong 22 6 7 9 25
12 Mokpo City 22 4 9 9 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 17
14 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 1 7 14 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dangjin Citizen 22 44 36 +8 31
2 Busan Transportation 22 39 26 +13 37
3 Chuncheon 22 39 35 +4 29
4 Pocheon 22 38 19 +19 45
5 Siheung Citizen 22 35 19 +16 52
6 Gyeongju HNP 22 32 29 +3 32
7 Daejeon Korail 22 31 17 +14 38
8 Yangpyeong 22 27 43 -16 17
9 Changwon City 22 24 27 -3 26
10 Yeoju Sejong 22 24 28 -4 25
11 Ulsan Citizen 22 23 24 -1 28
12 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 22 49 -27 10
13 Gangneung City 22 20 30 -10 27
14 Mokpo City 22 19 35 -16 21
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