Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K3 League / Jeonbuk Motors II vs Mokpo City

Prediction Audit: Jeonbuk Motors II vs Mokpo City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jeonbuk Motors II Jeonbuk Motors II
Sep 13, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.38
3 1.22
xG Accuracy: 55%
Mokpo City Mokpo City

The model missed the final outcome (Mokpo City win 1–3).

The model had projected Jeonbuk Motors II at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Jeonbuk Motors II Mokpo City ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Mokpo City higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mokpo City -9.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jeonbuk Motors II 39.0% 30.4% +8.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.5% 28.3% +1.3 pp Aligned
Mokpo City 31.5% 41.3% -9.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Mokpo City's win probability at 41.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mokpo City win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Mokpo City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jeonbuk Motors II by 9.8 percentage points (48.8% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jeonbuk Motors II 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Mokpo City 31.5%
    • xG · Jeonbuk Motors II 1.38 — Mokpo City 1.22
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jeonbuk Motors II 3.01 · Draw 3.24 · Mokpo City 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Jeonbuk Motors II 30.4% · Draw 28.3% · Mokpo City 41.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jeonbuk Motors II 3.01 · Draw 3.24 · Mokpo City 2.22
    • Implied 1X2 · Jeonbuk Motors II 30.4% · Draw 28.3% · Mokpo City 41.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mokpo City win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7419841

Closing Odds 2.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mokpo City win · Jeonbuk Motors II 1–3 Mokpo City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: K3 League
  • Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors II vs Mokpo City
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Jeonbuk Motors II 1.38 — Mokpo City 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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K3 League K3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 38
4 Busan Transportation 22 10 7 5 37
5 Gyeongju HNP 22 8 8 6 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 28
9 Gangneung City 22 7 6 9 27
10 Changwon City 22 6 8 8 26
11 Yeoju Sejong 22 6 7 9 25
12 Mokpo City 22 4 9 9 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 17
14 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 1 7 14 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dangjin Citizen 22 44 36 +8 31
2 Busan Transportation 22 39 26 +13 37
3 Chuncheon 22 39 35 +4 29
4 Pocheon 22 38 19 +19 45
5 Siheung Citizen 22 35 19 +16 52
6 Gyeongju HNP 22 32 29 +3 32
7 Daejeon Korail 22 31 17 +14 38
8 Yangpyeong 22 27 43 -16 17
9 Changwon City 22 24 27 -3 26
10 Yeoju Sejong 22 24 28 -4 25
11 Ulsan Citizen 22 23 24 -1 28
12 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 22 49 -27 10
13 Gangneung City 22 20 30 -10 27
14 Mokpo City 22 19 35 -16 21
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