The model missed the final outcome (Chuncheon win 0–1).
The model had projected Mokpo City at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Mokpo City Chuncheon ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mokpo City | 35.6% | 28.8% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.2% | -0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Chuncheon | 34.7% | 41.0% | -6.3 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Mokpo City's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.8%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Chuncheon win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mokpo City.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Mokpo City; match finished Chuncheon
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mokpo City by 6.9 percentage points (28.7% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mokpo City 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Chuncheon 34.7%
- xG · Mokpo City 1.31 — Chuncheon 1.29
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mokpo City 3.18 · Draw 3.03 · Chuncheon 2.23
- Implied 1X2 · Mokpo City 28.8% · Draw 30.2% · Chuncheon 41.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mokpo City 3.18 · Draw 3.03 · Chuncheon 2.23
- Implied 1X2 · Mokpo City 28.8% · Draw 30.2% · Chuncheon 41.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Chuncheon win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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K3 League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 52 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 37 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 32 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 8 | Ulsan Citizen | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 9 | Gangneung City | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Changwon City | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Yeoju Sejong | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 17 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 22 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dangjin Citizen | 22 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 31 |
| 2 | Busan Transportation | 22 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 37 |
| 3 | Chuncheon | 22 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 29 |
| 4 | Pocheon | 22 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 45 |
| 5 | Siheung Citizen | 22 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 52 |
| 6 | Gyeongju HNP | 22 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 32 |
| 7 | Daejeon Korail | 22 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 38 |
| 8 | Yangpyeong | 22 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 17 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 22 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 26 |
| 10 | Yeoju Sejong | 22 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Ulsan Citizen | 22 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 22 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 10 |
| 13 | Gangneung City | 22 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Mokpo City | 22 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 21 |
