Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K3 League / Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen

Prediction Audit: Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yangpyeong Yangpyeong
Sep 06, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.20
3 1.40
xG Accuracy: 61%
Siheung Citizen Siheung Citizen

AI correctly predicted the Siheung Citizen win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Siheung Citizen Siheung Citizen ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Siheung Citizen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Siheung Citizen -14.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yangpyeong 30.6% 20.5% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.5% 25.4% +4.1 pp Aligned
Siheung Citizen 39.9% 54.2% -14.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Siheung Citizen's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Siheung Citizen win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Siheung Citizen than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Siheung Citizen higher (54.1% vs model 39.9%, 14.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Siheung Citizen win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yangpyeong 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Siheung Citizen 40.0%
    • xG · Yangpyeong 1.20 — Siheung Citizen 1.40
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yangpyeong 4.47 · Draw 3.61 · Siheung Citizen 1.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Yangpyeong 20.5% · Draw 25.4% · Siheung Citizen 54.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yangpyeong 4.47 · Draw 3.61 · Siheung Citizen 1.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Yangpyeong 20.5% · Draw 25.4% · Siheung Citizen 54.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Siheung Citizen win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 28/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6320380

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Siheung Citizen win · Yangpyeong 1–3 Siheung Citizen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: K3 League
  • Fixture: Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Yangpyeong 1.2 — Siheung Citizen 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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K3 League K3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 38
4 Busan Transportation 22 10 7 5 37
5 Gyeongju HNP 22 8 8 6 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 28
9 Gangneung City 22 7 6 9 27
10 Changwon City 22 6 8 8 26
11 Yeoju Sejong 22 6 7 9 25
12 Mokpo City 22 4 9 9 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 17
14 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 1 7 14 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dangjin Citizen 22 44 36 +8 31
2 Busan Transportation 22 39 26 +13 37
3 Chuncheon 22 39 35 +4 29
4 Pocheon 22 38 19 +19 45
5 Siheung Citizen 22 35 19 +16 52
6 Gyeongju HNP 22 32 29 +3 32
7 Daejeon Korail 22 31 17 +14 38
8 Yangpyeong 22 27 43 -16 17
9 Changwon City 22 24 27 -3 26
10 Yeoju Sejong 22 24 28 -4 25
11 Ulsan Citizen 22 23 24 -1 28
12 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 22 49 -27 10
13 Gangneung City 22 20 30 -10 27
14 Mokpo City 22 19 35 -16 21
K3 League South-Korea. K3 League Predictions