The model missed the final outcome (Gyeongju HNP win 2–1).
The model had projected Changwon City at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Changwon City Gyeongju HNP ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyeongju HNP | 33.8% | 48.4% | -14.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.0% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Changwon City | 36.6% | 23.6% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Gyeongju HNP's win probability at 48.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Gyeongju HNP win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Gyeongju HNP than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Changwon City; match finished Gyeongju HNP
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Changwon City by 14.6 percentage points (51.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gyeongju HNP 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Changwon City 36.6%
- xG · Gyeongju HNP 1.27 — Changwon City 1.33
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gyeongju HNP 1.89 · Draw 3.26 · Changwon City 3.87
- Implied 1X2 · Gyeongju HNP 48.4% · Draw 28.0% · Changwon City 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gyeongju HNP 1.89 · Draw 3.26 · Changwon City 3.87
- Implied 1X2 · Gyeongju HNP 48.4% · Draw 28.0% · Changwon City 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Gyeongju HNP win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Gyeongju HNP & Changwon City!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
K3 League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 52 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 37 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 32 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 8 | Ulsan Citizen | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 9 | Gangneung City | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 10 | Changwon City | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Yeoju Sejong | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 17 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 22 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dangjin Citizen | 22 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 31 |
| 2 | Busan Transportation | 22 | 39 | 26 | +13 | 37 |
| 3 | Chuncheon | 22 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 29 |
| 4 | Pocheon | 22 | 38 | 19 | +19 | 45 |
| 5 | Siheung Citizen | 22 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 52 |
| 6 | Gyeongju HNP | 22 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 32 |
| 7 | Daejeon Korail | 22 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 38 |
| 8 | Yangpyeong | 22 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 17 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 22 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 26 |
| 10 | Yeoju Sejong | 22 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Ulsan Citizen | 22 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 22 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 10 |
| 13 | Gangneung City | 22 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Mokpo City | 22 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 21 |
