Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K3 League / Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen

Prediction Audit: Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyeongju HNP Gyeongju HNP
Jul 25, 2026 - 08:00
1 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 64%
Siheung Citizen Siheung Citizen

The model missed the final outcome (Gyeongju HNP win 1–0).

The model had projected Siheung Citizen at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Siheung Citizen Gyeongju HNP ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -1.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gyeongju HNP 31.9% 31.7% +0.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 30.6% -1.1 pp Aligned
Siheung Citizen 38.5% 37.7% +0.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Gyeongju HNP win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Siheung Citizen; match finished Gyeongju HNP

Market lesson

The full-time result was Gyeongju HNP win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gyeongju HNP 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Siheung Citizen 38.5%
    • xG · Gyeongju HNP 1.23 — Siheung Citizen 1.37
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gyeongju HNP 2.89 · Draw 2.99 · Siheung Citizen 2.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyeongju HNP 31.7% · Draw 30.6% · Siheung Citizen 37.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 07:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Gyeongju HNP 2.89 · Draw 2.99 · Siheung Citizen 2.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyeongju HNP 31.7% · Draw 30.6% · Siheung Citizen 37.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gyeongju HNP win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 94/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453235

Closing Odds 2.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gyeongju HNP win · Gyeongju HNP 1–0 Siheung Citizen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: K3 League
  • Fixture: Gyeongju HNP vs Siheung Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 08:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Gyeongju HNP 1.23 — Siheung Citizen 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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K3 League K3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 38
4 Busan Transportation 22 10 7 5 37
5 Gyeongju HNP 22 8 8 6 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 28
9 Gangneung City 22 7 6 9 27
10 Changwon City 22 6 8 8 26
11 Yeoju Sejong 22 6 7 9 25
12 Mokpo City 22 4 9 9 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 17
14 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 1 7 14 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dangjin Citizen 22 44 36 +8 31
2 Busan Transportation 22 39 26 +13 37
3 Chuncheon 22 39 35 +4 29
4 Pocheon 22 38 19 +19 45
5 Siheung Citizen 22 35 19 +16 52
6 Gyeongju HNP 22 32 29 +3 32
7 Daejeon Korail 22 31 17 +14 38
8 Yangpyeong 22 27 43 -16 17
9 Changwon City 22 24 27 -3 26
10 Yeoju Sejong 22 24 28 -4 25
11 Ulsan Citizen 22 23 24 -1 28
12 Jeonbuk Motors II 22 22 49 -27 10
13 Gangneung City 22 20 30 -10 27
14 Mokpo City 22 19 35 -16 21
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