Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K3 League / Yangpyeong vs Yeoju Sejong

Prediction Audit: Yangpyeong vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yangpyeong Yangpyeong
Jun 20, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Yeoju Sejong Yeoju Sejong

The model missed the final outcome (Yeoju Sejong win 1–2).

The model had projected Yangpyeong at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yangpyeong Yeoju Sejong ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Yangpyeong; match finished Yeoju Sejong

Market lesson

The full-time result was Yeoju Sejong win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 20, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Yangpyeong 1.32 — Yeoju Sejong 1.28
  2. Jun 20, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Yeoju Sejong win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1627379

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yeoju Sejong win · Yangpyeong 1–2 Yeoju Sejong
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K3 League
  • Fixture: Yangpyeong vs Yeoju Sejong
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Yangpyeong 1.32 — Yeoju Sejong 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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K3 League K3 League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Siheung Citizen 23 17 4 2 55
2 Pocheon 24 14 7 3 49
3 Daejeon Korail 24 12 5 7 41
4 Busan Transportation 24 11 7 6 40
5 Gyeongju HNP 23 9 8 6 35
6 Dangjin Citizen 24 10 4 10 34
7 Chuncheon 24 9 6 9 33
8 Changwon City 24 7 8 9 29
9 Ulsan Citizen 24 8 4 12 28
10 Yeoju Sejong 24 7 7 10 28
11 Gangneung City 23 7 6 10 27
12 Mokpo City 23 5 9 9 24
13 Yangpyeong 24 4 8 12 20
14 Jeonbuk Motors II 24 1 7 16 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dangjin Citizen 24 47 39 +8 34
2 Busan Transportation 24 42 30 +12 40
3 Chuncheon 24 42 37 +5 33
4 Pocheon 24 41 20 +21 49
5 Siheung Citizen 23 37 20 +17 55
6 Gyeongju HNP 23 35 31 +4 35
7 Daejeon Korail 24 33 19 +14 41
8 Yangpyeong 24 30 46 -16 20
9 Changwon City 24 27 31 -4 29
10 Yeoju Sejong 24 27 31 -4 28
11 Ulsan Citizen 24 25 28 -3 28
12 Jeonbuk Motors II 24 25 54 -29 10
13 Mokpo City 23 22 36 -14 24
14 Gangneung City 23 21 32 -11 27