Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga A / Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II

Prediction Audit: Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Elva Elva
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 64%
Nõmme Kalju II Nõmme Kalju II

AI correctly predicted the Elva win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Elva Elva ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Elva higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Elva -12.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Elva 38.0% 50.8% -12.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Nõmme Kalju II 32.4% 27.3% +5.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Elva's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Elva win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Elva than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Elva higher (50.7% vs model 38.0%, 12.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Elva win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Elva 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Nõmme Kalju II 32.4%
    • xG · Elva 1.36 — Nõmme Kalju II 1.24
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Elva 1.75 · Draw 4.05 · Nõmme Kalju II 3.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Elva 50.8% · Draw 21.9% · Nõmme Kalju II 27.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Elva 1.75 · Draw 4.05 · Nõmme Kalju II 3.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Elva 50.8% · Draw 21.9% · Nõmme Kalju II 27.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Elva win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6360875

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Elva win · Elva 1–0 Nõmme Kalju II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Esiliiga A
  • Fixture: Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Elva 1.36 — Nõmme Kalju II 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 24.3% · Probability edge: +27.5 pts · Est. EV: +133.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga A Esiliiga A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 19 5 6 62
2 Viimsi 30 15 5 10 50
3 Flora II 30 14 6 10 48
4 Elva 30 14 6 10 48
5 FCI Levadia II 29 13 2 14 41
6 Maardu 28 12 5 11 41
7 Tallinna Kalev 29 10 7 12 37
8 Nõmme United II 30 10 6 14 36
9 FC Tallinn 30 8 8 14 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 6 4 20 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tartu Welco 30 81 39 +42 62
2 Flora II 30 72 53 +19 48
3 FCI Levadia II 29 60 55 +5 41
4 Viimsi 30 56 31 +25 50
5 Tallinna Kalev 29 52 55 -3 37
6 Nõmme United II 30 50 62 -12 36
7 Elva 30 47 44 +3 48
8 Maardu 28 47 59 -12 41
9 FC Tallinn 30 39 65 -26 32
10 Nõmme Kalju II 30 38 79 -41 22